Reply To: Stormy autumn 2007 to come?


Well, been quite a while since Pabuk – and with lull in tropical storms in this region, seemed my notion that may have stormy autumn was to prove completely wrong.

Yet now, storms forming again – and Typhoon Wipha headed towarsd Shanghai, as looks possible there could be tropical storm for S China Sea next week.

La Nina is evidently developing: waters cooler than normal in eastern Pacific, warmer than normal in western Pacific.
WIth such conditions, tend to have tropical storms form west of normal, so more chance for hitting coasts from Vietnam to e China:
An INTERVIEW with Professor Johnny Chan

Here’s page where you can see maps showing recent sea surface temperatures in Pacific, and deviations from the norm.
Tropical Pacific Sea Surface Temperature Animation

Tropical storms need sea surface temps of over around 26.5C; west Pacific waters currently to over 30C in places, so plenty warm enough to form storms.
Other factors invmportant too, like wind shear, which can destroy storms. Now, seems some convection in west Pacific: about right for creating storms.
Waters should cool as and when winter monsoons really start blowing; but they’ve been weaker of late, not so chill, so wonder if may form storms later than normal.