Still can't say for sure if a direct hit is likely, but it's possible.
ECMWF computer models now seem an outlier in forecasting westerly track, with landfall close to Hainan (even though preferred by Joint Typhoon Warning Center as ECMWF has performed best w Megi so far). Some forecasts are for landfall east of HK.
HK Observatory forecast tracks since late yesterday have been pointing pretty much at HK. With Typhoon Lionrock in early days, I'd thought they were out of synch with developments, yet the Observatory forecast proved good I thought.
Here's actual and forecast track from Joint Typhoon Warning Center, which is based on assessment of several model forecasts. At landfall, winds 90 knots, or 166km/hr – well above the 118 km/hr needed to classify a tropical storm as a typhoon; winds rather stronger, at 100 knots, shortly before landfall.
