28 September 2013 at 1:13 pm #8868
Post on HK Observatory director's blog concludes:
What would happen then if Usagi took on a track of about 100 kilometres southward when it was near Hong Kong (red line in Figure 5) with the time of occurrence of storm surge matching with that of the astronomical high tide? Computer storm surge simulated results (Figure 6) showed that storm surge of about 1.7 metres would occur at Quarry Bay and added up with the astronomical high tide (2.2 metres), resulting in a sea level of nearly 4 metres, rather close to that caused by Wanda in 1962. If Usagi took on an even more southward track (green line in Figure 5), the simulated storm surge would be even larger. Severe storm surge was so close – we just escaped from repeating history!