Stormy autumn 2007 to come?

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  • #7076
    Anonymous
    Guest

    Lately been remarking that this hot, sunny weather surely can’t last, and with all the heat the sea must be soaking up, surely a chance of some storms – I guess that might have one or two that form, and suddenly intensify.

    Just checking European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecast site, seen that could be a couple of storms around by 8 August – one a tropical storm over Hainan; the other looks to be big typhoon forming east of the Philippines.

    For ECMWF, perhaps best link I can give is:
    ECMWF
    – takes you to map showing Europe, but links at left include Asia; can have a look for various days to come.
    Has proven remarkably accurate with some tropical storms/typhoons in past year or two, so interesting to me w my weather geek hat on.

    #8083
    Anonymous
    Guest

    chart here: ecmwf8aug07on29july07-1b628d4735b9e9183f557f66284b2095.gif

    #8084
    DocMartin
    Member

    As Typhoon Usagi heads for west Japan, the ECMWF is forecasting that by Monday there will be a typhoon hitting Hainan area – and a couple of days later, one slamming Taiwan (before moving mainly northwards). So after lack of storms for some time, a veritable flurry seems imminent; can wonder if a busy time ahead for typhoon forecasters.

    Here’s Mon 6 Aug forecast from ECMWF: ecmwf6aug07on1aug.gif

    #8085
    DocMartin
    Member

    … and here, a bigger storm forecast for Taiwan area, 9 Aug:

    ecmwf9aug07on1aug.gif

    #8086
    DocMartin
    Member

    Seems storm near Hainan won’t become typhoon.
    And storm headed for Taiwan may become big but not typhoon, judgging from ECMWF
    Nearer home, w procession of thunderstorms arriving from over the sea, our heatwave is over with a BANG or several.
    Chart here rather as ECMWF forecast a few days ago. hkobschart6aug07.gif

    #8087
    DocMartin
    Member

    Well, ECMWF not so hot w the two storms: the one that formed in Hainan area didn’t become powerful; and now Pabuk (severe trop storm [HK Obs] or typhoon [Joint Typhoon Warning Center]) heading pretty much our way rather than looking set to head north after passing Taiwan.

    HK Obs says: “Severe Tropical Storm Pabuk will move west in the next couple of days across the Taiwan Strait in the general direction of Guangdong. “

    While ECMWF still has it set to move north, as odd looking system, HK Obs agrees with Joint Typhoon Warning Center that to keep moving west, and hit coast just to east of us.

    JTWC forecast here. pabuktrackcimss8aug07.gif

    #8088
    DocMartin
    Member

    Horribly hazy now; surely in fair part as northerlies ahead of Pabuk wafting s China pollution over us.

    Hope the new environmental chief does another press conference, saying HK pollution problems suddenly far worse (after days of southerlies, wind from clean air over s China Sea, announced HK air pollution getting better! Oh dear)

    Seems that soon, will be affected by rainbands, and severe trop storm/typhoon will pass right over HK tonight. HK Obs forecast here; Pabuk position at 11am shown at right, X marks the spot for storm at 11pm pabukhkobs8aug07.jpg

    #8089
    DocMartin
    Member

    Wind picking up, thunder rumbling, on Cheung Chau just now

    even so, over at Weather Underground, the weather experts figuring Pabuk small and maybe set to weaken, as chased by larger storm, Wutip.

    As I write, more rumbles w thunderstorm over Lantau, and rain starting.

    #8090
    martinturner
    Member

    5.20pm:
    Darkness and rain just hitting Wanchai (in the last 5 minutes). I was out in pleasant bright weather and felt the first blobs of rain. Now from indoors it’s night and chucking it down.

    #8091
    DocMartin
    Member

    Heavy rain w thunder, lots of lightning, as an outer rain band arrived before 7pm (turned off my computer, lest get lightning spike hit electricity etc)

    Here, from HK Obs site, showing the lightning recorded.

    Pabuk now slower; may be late aft tomorrow before it’s closest to HK (as severe trop storm?) pabuklightning.jpg

    #8092
    DocMartin
    Member

    Seems no forecast really got Pabuk right; now perhaps just tropical storm/trop depression, moving towards west Guangdong.
    Roughly following it is trop storm/depression Wutip – maybe to cross Taiwan strait, then move around northwest over mainland China.
    So, doesn’t seem we’re set for dramatic weather, but rainy and rather blustery days ahead.

    #8093
    DocMartin
    Member

    Pabuk didn’t simply fade over land; instead, stayed over sea, halted, and now trundling back roughly towards us, maybe less than 100km away.
    No 1 signal back up.

    Radar animation here (live) – looks like intense rain at/near centre, which edges towards south of HK:
    http://www.hko.gov.hk/wxinfo/radars/radar.htm?pv_mode=playback

    #8094
    DocMartin
    Member

    Strong winds blowing here on Cheung Chau – nearing gale force I believe (HK Obs recording to 75km/hr).

    Yet, as some on Weather Underground noting, HK Observatory still only has Number One signal (warns of trop cyclone somewhere around) in effect; seems odd not to have Number Three, which warns of strong winds imminent or blowing.
    Radar image shows Pabuk, and rain bands, very close to us; HK Obs now forecasting it will pass over HK (tho it’s currently just rated as tropical depression).

    #8095
    DocMartin
    Member

    Had to take a ferry to town – from Cheung Chau – this aft; then found myself stranded on HK Island as ferries halted during Number 8.

    On HK Island, maybe seemed the No 8 was much ado about nothing, but as I walked to 2.15 ferry, real strong wind w rain; and an “exciting” ferry ride, with large waves, ferry rolling around – even tho took route well to north of normal, passing near Peng Chau.

    Plan to post a few photos and video clips. But first, here’s a photo as left Cheung Chau harbour after 2.30 (after ferry struggled to even leave the pier – was first blown against it). Gives a little idea of wind and rain at the time.

    #8096
    DocMartin
    Member

    The photo mentioned above.
    – added as Pabuk just maybe dissipating at last; winds in last hour or two markedly less blustery here on Cheung Chau. cc_harbour_pabuk10aug07small-6bcccab04850f3d60f60427f6b5e0327.jpg

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