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It looks possible that an area of low pressure east of the Philippines will head to S China Sea and intensify into a tropical storm/typhoon. HK Observatory forcast for Sat 5th and Sun 6th Aug is: "CLOUDY TO OVERCAST WITH OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLS." European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) seems to reckon a typhoon possible; tho perhaps it will pass westwards to the south of HK. Image from a forecast for Saturday (evening HK time); too early to be sure this will be correct of course, but worth watching situation develop.
Post edited by: Martin, at: 2006/08/01 09:34
Prapiroon now named, in South China Sea, and on the move and intensifying.
Forecasts not yet in great agreement, but perhaps likely to head towards Hainan, passing to the south of Hong Kong; Hong Kong Observatory forecasting “EAST TO SOUTHEAST FORCE 5, OCCASIONALLY FORCE 6 OFFSHORE.” for Friday, as well as similar for Thursday, with winds strengthening late tomorrow (Wed), and winds weaker but still showers for the weekend.
ECMWF, by contrast, has storm coming v close to Hong Kong during Friday.
Watched the lightening strikes last night, associated with outer rain bands of typ. Wind picking up ever so slowly. Seas in messy state of Sai Kung, but reckon things might change in next couple of days. Good chance for some ocean mixing for HK waters as the thermocline has been very pronounced (24C at 25 m, 27C on surface).
Thats the news from E Hong Kong…HK Obs radar showed a small flurry of rather wicked looking rainstorms pass westwards over area just north of HK yesterday evening. Now – earlier than HK Obs had forecast yesterday – rain from Prapiroon starting to affect Hong Kong. Winds picking up, albeit Number 3 signal still some time away (hours?) Still variations in forecast tracks, but landfall over or a little east of Hainan looking most likely – as in current compilation of forecasts from MIT
Easterlies from Prapiroon sending fair waves to Cheung Chau’s east beach (Tung Wan). This taken at around 2pm – shortly before period of rain. [img]https://www.hkoutdoors.com/components/com_joomlaboard/uploaded/images/PICT8866.JPG[/img]
Prapiroon now a typhoon; and (from around 4.20pm) Number 3 signal hoisted. Still seems headed towards Hainan/western Guangdong, but seems to have intensified faster, moved nearer Hong Kong today, than some forecasts – inc HK Observatory – predicted. Looks to be rather indistinct eye in latest satellite images.
Cheung Chau’s main waterfront – on west of the island – sheltered from the easterlies, but rainy this aft; albeit rain not bothering everyone. [img]https://www.hkoutdoors.com/components/com_joomlaboard/uploaded/images/prapiroonbrollies.JPG[/img]
also cc; the lights of the island’s police car seem bright on dark aft: [img]https://www.hkoutdoors.com/components/com_joomlaboard/uploaded/images/prapirooncopsnkidz.JPG[/img]
Radio reporting on tree falling on road to Sai Kung; here on Cheung Chau, looks like there’s an umbrella shortage…
Up early, finding powerful winds blowing over Cheung Chau (my place sheltered just now, happily); gusts ripping across surface of sea below. Checking realtime weather info for Cheung Chau on HK Observatory site, wind speed at CC has been continually increasing, but jump in last hour or so to around 85-95km/h, which is gale force 9, almost 10 Iyes folks, if signals applied to Cheung Chau, and not Victoria Harbour, the Number 8 would be up now, and HK would about grind to a halt; as it is, I guess ferries from CC could be halted).
– quick look at other weather stations that maybe exposed, and seems CC has strongest winds just now, beating even Waglan [which recording small jump in wind speed as I write this, to 80-85km; cc winds up a little too]. Via Obs main page, Prapiroon was lately around 310km ssw of Hong Kong, and still on track towards Hainan/w Guangdong (other forecasts agreeing with this track, so no surprise shifts in last few hours [tho to my eyes, satellite animation seems to show eye collapsing, then system reforming with jump towards north; 10-minute average winds recorded Cheung Chau now to over 100km/h; note that 118km/h sustained wind is hurricane force, so winds here indeed strong]). [it’s now 6.44am]
Post edited by: Martin, at: 2006/08/02 22:44
Went out this morning, to have a look on Cheung Chau as Prapiroon passes by.
First thing – a tree down near my place
Went out this morning, to have a look on Cheung Chau as Prapiroon passes by. First thing – a tree down near my place [img]https://www.hkoutdoors.com/components/com_joomlaboard/uploaded/images/prapiroontreedown.JPG[/img]
to Tung Wan – normally placid, as Cheung Chau is sheltered by various islands; today relatively large waves. Just after taking this, had message from Charlie Frew: gusts on Cheung Chau to 130 km/hr. Certainly powerful gusts as I took this.
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