Typhoon for early November???

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  • #7013
    DocMartin
    Member

    It’s a long time off, when it comes to making accurate forecasts, but European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts has a forecast with typhoon nearing Hong Kong around 1 November. ECMWF has made some good predictions re storms in west Pacific this year; but while a storm that looked possible for early Oct did form, it passed well to southwest of HK (hitting Vietnam). Anyway, can watch, see if any developments. To me, a late storm would seem possible this year (more likely than most), as rather few storms of late, and relative dearth of northeast monsoons, so sea should still be warm enough. you can see the forecasts via (click Asia on left)

    #7968
    CharlieF
    Member

    Was out diving over the weekend, and indeed the sea is still remarkably warm, still hovering around summer conditions of above 25C.
    Anything could happen to the development of that predicted storm.

    #7969
    DocMartin
    Member

    Now, ECMWF forecasting trop storm (judging by their chart), and heading for Vietnam, rather than near HK.
    Too bad if we’re not affected by this; could do with plenty of rain to wash the smog from the sky, for a little while anyway.

    #7970
    DocMartin
    Member

    Typhoon Cimaron indeed heading for Vietnam.

    Number One signal now up, as it’s closer to us; tho forecasts are for it to continue moving roughly west, HK Observatory forecasting that the typhoon coupled with arrival of northeast monsoon will lead to occasionally strong winds tonight and tomorrow.

    Post edited by: Martin, at: 2006/10/31 16:05

    #7971
    DocMartin
    Member

    Just to show that forecasting typhoon tracks and intensities remains tough, some widely differing forecasts for Cimaron.

    It’s lately tracked northwest, in direction of Hong Kong.

    HK Observatory forecasts abrupt turn to the west, then even heading south-southwest, on towards Vietnam.

    Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecast is more “interesting” for Hong Kong – has the storm maintaining strength, and heading for Pearl River delta. But also, it could weaken, and would then move westwards.

    #7972
    DocMartin
    Member

    Cimaron has continued approaching Hong Kong – following Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecast. JTWC now forecasting it will encounter increasing shear as it nears the coast; instead of making landfall just west of Hong Kong, it will weaken and turn west before reaching the coast (early afternoon tomorrow). Looks set to come close enough to make it real blustery here, surely with plenty of rain (hooray! – clean up some pollution). HK Obs forecast is rather similar, but has Cimaron turning earlier than JTWC. Over at MIT Storms page, there’s a variety of forecast tracks – three even show it making sudden leap southwards, towards either south or south-southwest.

    Just noticed the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts is forecasting Cimaron will linger in S China Sea, albeit dwindling; only making landfall in n Vietnam around 9 November. That’s a long time for a storm to hang around; but, also a long time in the world of weather forecasting.

    #7973
    DocMartin
    Member

    Cimaron seems to have nearly stalled, merely moving at a snail’s pace towards Hong Kong. JTWC and HK Obs still have it forecast to move nearer to HK, and turn towards west. If JTWC is correct with latest track, it could be close enough for at least storm force winds here. On MIT storms page, there’s still a forecast for abrupt shift towards the south. One forecast even has it turning east, to the northern tip of Luzon. Meanwhile, here in Hong Kong, a fine, rather windy day, albeit still with much smog (oops, I mean haze). Shot here from Cheung Chau early this aft – good for windsurfing, but not for enjoying pounding surf.

    #7974
    DocMartin
    Member

    Here’s recent satellite image showing Cimaron – much as forecast by ECMWF a week ago (see first post in this thread).

    #7975
    DocMartin
    Member

    Cimaron barely moving now (“quasistationary” say HK Obs and JTWC).

    Again, models conflicting re where it will head – perhaps moving a little, then going southwest suggests JTWC; HK Obs has it moving a little west; a couple of forecasts on MIT Storms page even show it heading northeast.
    But, does seem they now mostly agree Cimaron is set to soon weaken rapidly – so no Number 8, or even No 3, excitement for us; nor even rain that could clear the air.

    #7976
    DocMartin
    Member

    Cimaron moving south, forecast to head southwest; soon, T1 likely to be cancelled.

    A quirky storm; at one point, JTWC had it set to come v close, even passing right over HK as a tropical storm. But, barely caused a ripple of impact here – and certainly didn’t bring rain to clear the air (just about to go outside into the hideous murk! – 50% humidity, yet major “haze”).

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