Stormy autumn 2007 to come?
30 July 2007 - 11:58am
Lately been remarking that this hot, sunny weather surely can't last, and with all the heat the sea must be soaking up, surely a chance of some storms - I guess that might have one or two that form, and suddenly intensify.
Just checking European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecast site, seen that could be a couple of storms around by 8 August - one a tropical storm over Hainan; the other looks to be big typhoon forming east of the Philippines.
For ECMWF, perhaps best link I can give is:
ECMWF
- takes you to map showing Europe, but links at left include Asia; can have a look for various days to come.
Has proven remarkably accurate with some tropical storms/typhoons in past year or two, so interesting to me w my weather geek hat on.
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Hong Kong Outdoors is hosted by the highly reliable pair.com, which I found after fair amount of research online, following troubles with former webhost.
chart here: [img width=303]http://www.hkoutdoors.com/components/com_joomlaboard/uploaded/images/ecmwf8aug07on29july07-1b628d4735b9e9183f557f66284b2095.gif[/img]
As Typhoon Usagi heads for west Japan, the ECMWF is forecasting that by Monday there will be a typhoon hitting Hainan area - and a couple of days later, one slamming Taiwan (before moving mainly northwards). So after lack of storms for some time, a veritable flurry seems imminent; can wonder if a busy time ahead for typhoon forecasters.
Here's Mon 6 Aug forecast from ECMWF: [img width=237]http://www.hkoutdoors.com/components/com_joomlaboard/uploaded/images/ecmwf6aug07on1aug.gif[/img]
... and here, a bigger storm forecast for Taiwan area, 9 Aug:
[img width=269]http://www.hkoutdoors.com/components/com_joomlaboard/uploaded/images/ecmwf9aug07on1aug.gif[/img]
Seems storm near Hainan won't become typhoon.
And storm headed for Taiwan may become big but not typhoon, judgging from ECMWF
Nearer home, w procession of thunderstorms arriving from over the sea, our heatwave is over with a BANG or several.
Chart here rather as ECMWF forecast a few days ago. [img width=478]http://www.hkoutdoors.com/components/com_joomlaboard/uploaded/images/hkobschart6aug07.gif[/img]
Well, ECMWF not so hot w the two storms: the one that formed in Hainan area didn't become powerful; and now Pabuk (severe trop storm [HK Obs] or typhoon [Joint Typhoon Warning Center]) heading pretty much our way rather than looking set to head north after passing Taiwan.
HK Obs says: "Severe Tropical Storm Pabuk will move west in the next couple of days across the Taiwan Strait in the general direction of Guangdong. "
While ECMWF still has it set to move north, as odd looking system, HK Obs agrees with Joint Typhoon Warning Center that to keep moving west, and hit coast just to east of us.
JTWC forecast here. [img width=282]http://www.hkoutdoors.com/components/com_joomlaboard/uploaded/images/pabuktrackcimss8aug07.gif[/img]
Horribly hazy now; surely in fair part as northerlies ahead of Pabuk wafting s China pollution over us.
Hope the new environmental chief does another press conference, saying HK pollution problems suddenly far worse (after days of southerlies, wind from clean air over s China Sea, announced HK air pollution getting better! Oh dear)
Seems that soon, will be affected by rainbands, and severe trop storm/typhoon will pass right over HK tonight. HK Obs forecast here; Pabuk position at 11am shown at right, X marks the spot for storm at 11pm [img width=350]http://www.hkoutdoors.com/components/com_joomlaboard/uploaded/images/pabukhkobs8aug07.jpg[/img]
Wind picking up, thunder rumbling, on Cheung Chau just now
even so, over at Weather Underground, the weather experts figuring Pabuk small and maybe set to weaken, as chased by larger storm, Wutip.
As I write, more rumbles w thunderstorm over Lantau, and rain starting.
5.20pm:
Darkness and rain just hitting Wanchai (in the last 5 minutes). I was out in pleasant bright weather and felt the first blobs of rain. Now from indoors it's night and chucking it down.
Heavy rain w thunder, lots of lightning, as an outer rain band arrived before 7pm (turned off my computer, lest get lightning spike hit electricity etc)
Here, from HK Obs site, showing the lightning recorded.
Pabuk now slower; may be late aft tomorrow before it's closest to HK (as severe trop storm?) [img width=329]http://www.hkoutdoors.com/components/com_joomlaboard/uploaded/images/pabuklightning.jpg[/img]
Seems no forecast really got Pabuk right; now perhaps just tropical storm/trop depression, moving towards west Guangdong.
Roughly following it is trop storm/depression Wutip - maybe to cross Taiwan strait, then move around northwest over mainland China.
So, doesn't seem we're set for dramatic weather, but rainy and rather blustery days ahead.
Pabuk didn't simply fade over land; instead, stayed over sea, halted, and now trundling back roughly towards us, maybe less than 100km away.
No 1 signal back up.
Radar animation here (live) - looks like intense rain at/near centre, which edges towards south of HK:
http://www.hko.gov.hk/wxinfo/radars/radar.htm?pv_mode=playback
Strong winds blowing here on Cheung Chau - nearing gale force I believe (HK Obs recording to 75km/hr).
Yet, as some on Weather Underground noting, HK Observatory still only has Number One signal (warns of trop cyclone somewhere around) in effect; seems odd not to have Number Three, which warns of strong winds imminent or blowing.
Radar image shows Pabuk, and rain bands, very close to us; HK Obs now forecasting it will pass over HK (tho it's currently just rated as tropical depression).
Had to take a ferry to town - from Cheung Chau - this aft; then found myself stranded on HK Island as ferries halted during Number 8.
On HK Island, maybe seemed the No 8 was much ado about nothing, but as I walked to 2.15 ferry, real strong wind w rain; and an "exciting" ferry ride, with large waves, ferry rolling around - even tho took route well to north of normal, passing near Peng Chau.
Plan to post a few photos and video clips. But first, here's a photo as left Cheung Chau harbour after 2.30 (after ferry struggled to even leave the pier - was first blown against it). Gives a little idea of wind and rain at the time.
The photo mentioned above.
- added as Pabuk just maybe dissipating at last; winds in last hour or two markedly less blustery here on Cheung Chau. [img width=580]http://www.hkoutdoors.com/components/com_joomlaboard/uploaded/images/cc_harbour_pabuk10aug07small-6bcccab04850f3d60f60427f6b5e0327.jpg[/img]
Just done page on the site re Pabuk, inc some photos and video clips from Cheung Chau, ferry from CC to Hong Kong Island:
Pabuk the come back kid
Well, been quite a while since Pabuk - and with lull in tropical storms in this region, seemed my notion that may have stormy autumn was to prove completely wrong.
Yet now, storms forming again - and Typhoon Wipha headed towarsd Shanghai, as looks possible there could be tropical storm for S China Sea next week.
La Nina is evidently developing: waters cooler than normal in eastern Pacific, warmer than normal in western Pacific.
WIth such conditions, tend to have tropical storms form west of normal, so more chance for hitting coasts from Vietnam to e China:
An INTERVIEW with Professor Johnny Chan
Here's page where you can see maps showing recent sea surface temperatures in Pacific, and deviations from the norm.
Tropical Pacific Sea Surface Temperature Animation
Tropical storms need sea surface temps of over around 26.5C; west Pacific waters currently to over 30C in places, so plenty warm enough to form storms.
Other factors invmportant too, like wind shear, which can destroy storms. Now, seems some convection in west Pacific: about right for creating storms.
Waters should cool as and when winter monsoons really start blowing; but they've been weaker of late, not so chill, so wonder if may form storms later than normal.
Out and about on Cheung Chau earlier today, and a very windy day.
Partly northeast monsoon, but also severe tropical storm Lekima around southsouthwest of us, trundling towards Hainan.
Looking at HK observatory info for various weather stations, can see that winds generally strengthened this morning. At Cheung Chau, sometimes averaging (over 10 mins) more than 60 km/h - so just reaching gale force. At Ngong Ping, sometimes over hurricane force (average of 118 km/h), with peak for 10-min average reaching 140 km/h around 6am.
Over at Weather Underground forum, some discussion re this: why just Strong Monsoon Signal issued, when winds well within range for T3 signal, and in places reaching gales, ie Number 8? Notions there that nowadays, the Obs doesn't like issuing typhoon/trop storm wind signals; also wondering if people might be too relaxed re weather with only a monsoon signal in place.
Well, let's see - will it turn out that numbers of people have been out doing stuff they wouldn't have done had T3 been issued, then had some problems? Also, if Lekima comes closer - and especially if get rain bands with squalls coming nearer - can see if Obs switches to T3.
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