26 September 2011 at 7:27 am #8629
Forecast tracks have shifted towards Hainan, but now some swing back north again, to west Guangdong or even Hong Kong.
This is from GFS, a model with some consistency so far in the track.
Of interest, too, I think: HK Observatory forecasts force 7 winds late on Thursday and early on Saturday, so tho forecasts 6-7 for Friday, indicates some expectation of winds consistently force 7 or above on Friday, coupled with frequent squally showers. This fits close approach of strong storm.
Still, must see just what happens…