El NiÃ±o conditions have developed in the tropical Pacific and are likely to continue into early 2007. Ocean temperatures increased remarkably in the equatorial Pacific during the last two weeks. "Currently, weak El NiÃ±o conditions exist, but there is a potential for this event to strengthen into a moderate event by winter," said Vernon Kousky, NOAA’s lead El NiÃ±o forecaster.
This contrasts with HK Observatory finding sea surface temps looked normal in July, and forecasting near neutral conditions for next two months. For Hong Kong, this could mean a very wet spring is in store; and next year’s typhoon season could be pretty quiet, with tropical cyclones mainly staying over Pacific, and moving north. Perhaps also wet in summer – much as July 1997 (remember the handover?), which was an El Nino year. Info on El Nino and HK spring weather (pdf file): sunzi1.lib.hku.hk/hkjo/view/13/1300039.pdf See also El Nino project (Hong Kong) by King’s School – inc results showing diseases, especially cholera, tend to increase here during El Nino; also El Nino years tend to be warmer and wetter than normal. Image here from NOAA site