DocMartin

[DocMartin]

Soon after Charlie Frew’s letter (which was published in the SCM Post), get a news item in SCMP, with marine expert Dr Bill Ballantine calling for fishing ban in half of Hong Kong waters.

Ballantine had set up New Zealand’s first marine reserve; became a success, partly as became a no fishing zone.
Quoted in SCMP as saying that allowing fishing in our marine parks was “not just wrong but pathetically silly”.
Also, re marine environment, said degree of damage about proportional to population density and its activities – so “It isn’t really surprising that yours [Hong Kong’s] is just about the worst.”
Suggested halting fishing in around 50% of Hong Kong’s waters.

For all the “worst in the world”, we indeed know that HK marine diversity is high – but populations of fish etc woeful. With protection along lines of reseres Dr Ballantine established in NZ, surely could be huge improvements – and could even help fisheries. But as yet, seems fat chance of such progress!

[DocMartin]

TLW a long way by boat

I’d try other places, then

[DocMartin]

Hi Craven: Welcome to HK Outdoors! Re boat, try: Tai Long Wan, Sai Kung and for camping gear, only little info on this forum as yet: https://www.hkoutdoors.com/wild-hk-info/camping-equipment-rental.html Martin

[DocMartin]

Well, been quite a while since Pabuk – and with lull in tropical storms in this region, seemed my notion that may have stormy autumn was to prove completely wrong.

Yet now, storms forming again – and Typhoon Wipha headed towarsd Shanghai, as looks possible there could be tropical storm for S China Sea next week.

La Nina is evidently developing: waters cooler than normal in eastern Pacific, warmer than normal in western Pacific.
WIth such conditions, tend to have tropical storms form west of normal, so more chance for hitting coasts from Vietnam to e China:
An INTERVIEW with Professor Johnny Chan

Here’s page where you can see maps showing recent sea surface temperatures in Pacific, and deviations from the norm.
Tropical Pacific Sea Surface Temperature Animation

Tropical storms need sea surface temps of over around 26.5C; west Pacific waters currently to over 30C in places, so plenty warm enough to form storms.
Other factors invmportant too, like wind shear, which can destroy storms. Now, seems some convection in west Pacific: about right for creating storms.
Waters should cool as and when winter monsoons really start blowing; but they’ve been weaker of late, not so chill, so wonder if may form storms later than normal.

[DocMartin]

Item in today’s S China Morning Post says there are more midges and blackflies in Hong Kong, especially the New Territories – and because of their itchy bites they have become a real nuisance in some areas (also says blackflies transmit filarial worms, which can cause blindness – something I’ve never heard of but seems very horrible!)

I haven’t noticed more around my place on Cheung Chau, but from experience know these are unpleasant: may look like a full stop on my skin, but bit stings like mosquito. I came to dub them “micro-biters”; believe that in US they’re known as “no see-ums”.

Higher temperatures plus increased rains thought to be leading them to breed more readily.

[DocMartin]

The bureaucrat I mentioned above is – I see from letter to SCMP, then some googling – Edward Yau Tang-wah, relatively newly appointed Secretary for the Environment. Once installed, Yau was quick to follow some days of real blue skies with boast about Hong Kong actually achieving some success with reducing air pollution. Hello Edward (avid HK Outdoors reader that you are!) – I wonder if you’ve ventured outside lately? Maybe even now you’re preparing press release to say HK air remains shamefully, obscenely filthy – and even admitting there’s hardly a darn thing you can do about it, not when nearby China, and even Donald Tsang, hell-bent on "progress" through same old, same old factories and concrete and so on. Maybe, though, you are to be pitied a little, Edward, for reading your background it appears you entered the job with little environmental knowledge – and maybe zero experience – as far as I can see. Here is your background info, Mr Edward Yau Tang-wah:

Quote:

Mr Yau has served in various bureaux and departments, including the former Security Branch, the former City and New Territories Administration, the former Health and Welfare Branch, the former Transport Branch, Correctional Services Department and the former Finance Branch. He was Deputy Director-General of Trade (later renamed Deputy Director-General of Trade and Industry) from January, 1999, to May, 2001, and Director-General of the Hong Kong Economic and Trade Office in Washington from May, 2001, to April, 2004. He has been Deputy Secretary for Education and Manpower since April, 2004.

Senior Appointments – hardly suggests you know, or care, much about the environment, so your silly statement in July maybe understandable. Though statement perhaps helps explain why you came last in recent poll of how our government people were doing: http://hkupop.hku.hk/english/release/release492.html The real problem, then, perhaps lies above you. Say, with Donald Tsang – who seemed so proud of the Action Blue Sky Campaign, yet is likewise very very quiet on days with grotty air like this. Your appointment, Edward, plus rather low ranking of Environmental portfolio, helps show that environment is not really a government priority: over 2000 people a year may die from filthy air, but most die out of sight, and far out of the government’s mind. This shot from shortly after lunchtime today; was there a cloud in the sky? – hard to tell at the time, with all the crud around. (Maybe some mist, too; again, hard to tell) Now, just started to rain; will clean the air somewhat, before next waves of particulates.

[DocMartin]

Foreign Affairs has another long article on China's protracted environmental crisis. Summary:

Quote:

China's environmental woes are mounting, and the country is fast becoming one of the leading polluters in the world. The situation continues to deteriorate because even when Beijing sets ambitious targets to protect the environment, local officials generally ignore them, preferring to concentrate on further advancing economic growth.

Really improving the environment in China will require revolutionary bottom-up political and economic reforms.

The Great Leap Backward?

[DocMartin]

Remember a few weeks back, when there was a period of blue skies and clear air as breezes blew in from S China Sea (yet still plenty of grot in roadside air) – and a bureaucratic buffoon stood up and announced that measures to combat HK air pollution were working? Well, here we are a short time later, and with northeast monsoon wafting airborne crap in from border, it’s horribly murky outdoors. Current API page of Env Protection Department shows "high" air pollution at all stations – even Tap Mun, out in Tolo Channel, which I figure is not affected by HK city pollution with northeast winds. But can we expect any of our bureaucrats to emerge from their air-conditioned offices to tell us the Action Blue Sky campaign launched by HK government has so far been a massive disaster, an utter flop and no more than a limp-wristed PR campaign with little but hot air? Any one ranking high in the Env Protection Department about to hold a press conference, tell us the air is still filthy and disgusting and vile and an insult to Hong Kong’s attempts to be a World City? Or how about some official popping round to a hospital or two, finding people who have respiratory problems exacerbated by pollution – perhaps even finding some of the 2000-plus individuals who will be killed by air pollution this year, and saying, "We’re really sorry about this. Sorry about the greed and the money grubbing and the corruption and the cheapskate overseas buyers and the lack of accountability of officials in Hong Kong and China. We’re sorry you and your family and your friends can’t enjoy what’s surely among the most basic of human rights – the right to breathe clean air." Of course such things won’t happen. We can expect our bureaucratic "leaders" to remain in their bunkers; with one or two perhaps ready to emerge next summer, when we just might enjoy another 2-3 week window of southerly breezes and clean air. Three weeks, in a whole year – perhaps that’s now about all we really manage; otherwise, a clear day here, a day there; and long spells of smog, smog, smog. (And, in case you haven’t guessed, I’m not happy about it.)

[DocMartin]

I emailed the Leisure the Cultural Services Dept re the keep off the grass signs
Just been phoned by a lady who’s [deputy manager] of the ZBG.]
She told me the grass in the ZBG is an ornamental kind, fairly readily damaged by people working on it. Plus, they’re working on new flowerbeds.
May later open grassy areas, so people can take photos of flowers; and in future will consider my suggestion to allow people on grass.
I said that not too high intensity use would seem fine to me; and I reckon people could stand seeing some damage – lawns don’t have to be like fine paintings.

The dep manager also mentioned Victoria Park, where have grassy areas people can use; different grass type (as Yuen Long park I figure).

[DocMartin]

Again some international coverage of air pollution in Hong Kong, this time on Reuters Alertnet. Maybe some day the govt will decide to really act, rather than talk; or maybe will stick to telling us of InAction Blue Sky, and boasting of improving air quality when get clean breezes from over S China Sea (even though at same time, urban air quality still poor/bad along streets).

Quote:

Hong Kong’s air pollution is making it more difficult for companies to attract foreign staff to the territory, a survey released on Sunday by the city’s American Chamber of Commerce shows. In the survey, which covered responses from 89 chamber members, 51 percent of respondents said they had experienced difficulty recruiting professionals to come and work in Hong Kong and 70 percent said they knew of professionals who had declined to work in the territory because of the poor quality of the environment. Given the deteriorating air quality, 57 percent of survey respondents indicated their companies were likely in future to invest more money elsewhere instead of Hong Kong.

HK pollution problem deters expats – AmCham You can download pdf file of the seven-page report from: Environment Survey Report

[DocMartin]

Thanks, Charlie; saw the SCM Post news item on this – in which AFCD quoted as saying this shark belongs to family w species known to attack humans (great white, tiger sharks); but you said this species isn’t one that goes for people – plus noting fishing shouldn’t be allowed in marine park.

Sharks should be part of our marine ecosystem; especially if species that don’t occasionally take a bite of human, should be something to be happy about – as plenty of other places worldwide seem ok with, even happy about, having sharks around. Albeit I don’t mean “happy” in negative way – like being able to chop their fins off and sell em!

[DocMartin]

Strong article in NY Times, part of series on pollution in China and its ramifications. Reading this, you feel it's no surprise that Donald Tsang's Action Blue Sky Campaign seems to have made no more progress than being simply rhetoric. Includes:

Quote:

just as the speed and scale of China's rise as an economic power have no clear parallel in history, so its pollution problem has shattered all precedents. Environmental degradation is now so severe, with such stark domestic and international repercussions, that pollution poses not only a major long-term burden on the Chinese public but also an acute political challenge to the ruling Communist Party.

And it is not clear that China can rein in its own economic juggernaut. Public health is reeling. Pollution has made cancer China's leading cause of death, the Ministry of Health says. Ambient air pollution alone is blamed for hundreds of thousands of deaths each year. Nearly 500 million people lack access to safe drinking water. Chinese cities often seem wrapped in a toxic gray shroud.

Only 1 percent of the country's 560 million city dwellers breathe air considered safe by the European Union. Beijing is frantically searching for a magic formula, a meteorological deus ex machina, to clear its skies for the 2008 Olympics.

Environmental woes that might be considered catastrophic in some countries can seem commonplace in China: industrial cities where people rarely see the sun; children killed or sickened by lead poisoning or other types of local pollution; a coastline so swamped by algal red tides that large sections of the ocean no longer sustain marine life. China is choking on its own success.

As China Roars, Pollution Reaches Deadly Extremes

[DocMartin]

Yesterday’s Sunday Morning Post had lead news item titled “Fund firms ‘driven out of polluted HK’ “

Mentioned that some funds have chosen to move headquarters to or set up in Singapore, in part because of worries over air pollution in Hong Kong, and its impacts on staff members’ children. Though no official comments, insiders at several of the companies said pollution had been a major factor.

Good quote from an unnamed senior manager:

Quote:

You get to a point where you don’t want your children growing up with gas masks on.

[DocMartin]

Email from Paul Zimmerman:

Quote:

Are their 4 types of danger with typhoons? And can (should) they be anticipated/forecasted separately?

– Timing (Distance to HK) – which is the current number system. Maybe this should be replaced with actual distance?

– Wind strenght/direction – your proposal to identify the power covers this

– Rain (flooding, slips) – large and slow ones may have big rain bands – and we can use the current rain warning systems for this? Maybe stating – black rain warning is expected to be hoisted at xx time….

– Surge (Shore flooding) – isn’t this related to tide and wind strenght?

If, big if, one can differentiate the warnings, then the benefit is that people have to respond to different dangers depending on their circumstances: Ferries stop because of wind not because of rain; land slips are caused by rain not wind; etc

What u think?

My reply:

Wind – problem if above gale; danger if above storm; serious danger if above Category 3 hurricane (rare in S China Sea: see marvellous map – below – from Historical Tropical Cyclone Tracks).
Rain: not so big a trouble as massive winds could be for HK – partly as fairly used to big rainstorms in monsoons, but rainstorm warnings indeed useful.
Storm surge: maybe biggest problem of all, especially for Tolo Harbour (based on two last century). Often when I head along Tolo Harbour, rather imagine waves pushing in past science park, on towards rail line.

Current warning system starts w distance: within 800km of Hong Kong; then on to wind speeds: strong winds forecast (3), gales imminent or blowing (, above gales happening or likely (9), and typhoon (10) – after which, nothing more, even though typhoons vary in intensity.

Tough to get mix of warnings right, as complex; very hard to predict just what trop storms will do.
Saw Sepat reach Category 5 – on hurricane scale over sea – yet rather weaker as hit Taiwan, and maybe only just typhoon strength as it hit mainland China. Even so, seen too re 900 mm rain on Taiwan:
Surging river after Sepat:
Part 2 Typhoon Sepat strikes Taiwan, biblical flooding
Sepat eyewall (not so dramatic, partly as at night):
Typhoon Sepat strikes Taiwan, eyewall + biblical floods pt 1

In US, concerns mount when get hurricanes of Category 3 and above: it seems good idea for us to have much the same system.

Also, as I’ve discussed w HK Obs before, seems good idea to have Number 8 and announce (or have special signal) that nothing much stronger than gales likely.
Hong Kong Number 8 tropical cyclone warning needs revamping?
Then, even after this discussion, I figure useful to have signal saying there looks to be real chance of winds reaching “basic” typhoon force and above.

Yes, responses can be complex. Ferries closing down important – maybe only in areas affected, if storm small: during Pabuk, ferry rides rough in western waters, while at Sai Kung winds not strong:
Pabuk the come back kid (Inc video I shot during ride into HK)
Then, more closures: buses, esp on exposed routes; and on to shutting down even all offices etc.
Very hard to get this right; inc if office has people living on Cheung Chau, others who live nearby (say). – just one example of complexity.

For storm surge: I asked Obs some time ago re this, and they do try to see if surge looking likely.
Maybe needs combination of wind strength and direction, plus high tide, and storm moving right way, to pile up water: especially Mirs Bay then into Tolo Harbour.
Hopefully there’s been some modelling etc done on this: what would surge be like along now built up shores of inner Tolo Harbour? Shore of Ma On Shan, Sha Tin along the river/channel etc.
To me, odd a “science park” appears designed without any apparent notion that one day the sea could surge along the lower levels. Where were the scientists when it was designed?
I wonder, too, re the harbour area: if waves could (just) reach Des Voeux Road during past typhoon, then some other areas today could likely be within reach of sea during violent winds (tho harder now to reach DV Rd, because of reclamation since 1962).

Been some time since strong typhoon hit Hong Kong directly, so much infrastructure is untested by real world storm.
Plus, even many locals have little idea re typhoons. Since I arrived here, just one direct hit – York, which wasn’t much above typhoon strength I think; otherwise, had quite a few Number 8s during which it seemed little happened. So, if get big storm come directly at us, might be that many people will have guard down.

Also notable – and in a way comical – I think: when major cyclones (hurricanes, typhoons, cyclones) threaten various places, from Florida to Fujian, get many people evacuated. Here, we go home and have typhoon parties!

[DocMartin]

Peculiar looking weather on Cheung Chau today.
Mist-cum-fog – don’t think it’s mainly smog, albeit had smog just as Sepat was nearing s China coast, bringing light northerlies to us. Looks like rain may imminent; yet not raining, and fresh sw winds blowing much of the time.
This as Sepat has faded to become low pressure area over se China; leading to us having southwest monsoon.
Checking real time weather info fo Cheung Chau: mostly there’s been maintenance today, tho showing humidity over 90% just now. At Waglan Island, humidity mostly over 90% today.
Now, HK Obs radar shows thin line of rain/thunder storms just appearing to north of us, moving south. So maybe after such humidity and near fog, will get some rain, perhaps thunder, later in the day. [img width=420]https://www.hkoutdoors.com/components/com_joomlaboard/uploaded/images/PICT1108.JPG[/img]

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