Tropical Cyclone Ma-on Headed for Hong Kong

25 August 2022 (evening) update: Ma-on took a track somewhat south and west of earlier forecasts; passed within 200km of Hong as a severe tropical storm early this morning. So, “no biggie”. Quite dry while it passed Hong Kong too, with intermittent showers; though still some heavy rain in evening.

23 August 2022 (aft): Ma-on intensified into a severe tropical cyclone; but as it passes over north Luzon, track maybe shifted slightly south/west of Hong Kong, rather than pretty much direct hit as was forecast, as per GFS here. Still time to change this. Will be closest early Thursday 25th morning; which also coincides with high tide – so if strong southerlies/easterlies could be some storm surge here.

Does appear that most rain will be to south of Hong Kong [perhaps along with strongest winds, in rain bands].

22 August, 2022: pretty good agreement in forecast models that Ma-on, a tropical cyclone just forming to east of Luzon, will head for Hong Kong. HK Observatory forecasting at least severe tropical storm strength, might become a typhoon – with rapid intensification helped by the recent hot weather, plus heat stored in ocean [more with global warming]. Looks like a direct hit is possible, maybe early on Thursday.

Fast moving storm; if it indeed passes just south of Hong Kong, the winds north and just east of eye [easterlies, then southerlies, roughly] could push a storm surge: much worse if in morning with high tide, not so bad perhaps if in afternoon with low tide.

Also looks like a “wet” storm; radar here, too, with current rainfall indicated by Philippines radar. Could be intense rain over Hong Kong, with thunderstorms; then rain moving inland over south/southwest China.

More updates to come; meanwhile, a few images from windytv [GFS and ECMWF forecasts for wind – stronger storm forecast by GFS], HK Observatory: