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      Lately been remarking that this hot, sunny weather surely can’t last, and with all the heat the sea must be soaking up, surely a chance of some storms – I guess that might have one or two that form, and suddenly intensify.

      Just checking European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecast site, seen that could be a couple of storms around by 8 August – one a tropical storm over Hainan; the other looks to be big typhoon forming east of the Philippines.

      For ECMWF, perhaps best link I can give is:
      – takes you to map showing Europe, but links at left include Asia; can have a look for various days to come.
      Has proven remarkably accurate with some tropical storms/typhoons in past year or two, so interesting to me w my weather geek hat on.


        chart here: ecmwf8aug07on29july07-1b628d4735b9e9183f557f66284b2095.gif


        隨著颱風阿兔向日本西部移動,ECMWF 預測,週一將有一場颱風襲擊海南地區,幾天后,一場颱風將襲擊台灣(然後主要向北移動)。因此,在一段時間沒有暴風雨之後,一場真正的風暴似乎即將來臨。可以想知道颱風預報員接下來是否會很忙。

        以下是 ECMWF 8 月 6 日星期一的天氣預報: ecmwf6aug07on1aug.gif


        ……這裡是台灣地區 8 月 9 日更大風暴的預報:



        Seems storm near Hainan won’t become typhoon.
        And storm headed for Taiwan may become big but not typhoon, judgging from ECMWF
        Nearer home, w procession of thunderstorms arriving from over the sea, our heatwave is over with a BANG or several.
        Chart here rather as ECMWF forecast a few days ago. hkobschart6aug07.gif



        香港天文台表示:「強烈熱帶風暴帕布將在未來數日向西移動,穿越台灣海峽,大致向東方向移動。 “

        雖然 ECMWF 仍將其向北移動,但由於系統看起來很奇怪,香港觀測站同意聯合颱風警報中心的意見,即繼續向西移動,並襲擊我們東邊的海岸。

        JTWC 預報在這裡。 pabuktrackcimss8aug07.gif




        看來很快,將會受雨帶影響,強對流風暴/颱風將於今晚掠過香港。香港觀測站預測請點擊此處;上午 11 點的帕布克位置如右圖所示,X 標記晚上 11 點風暴發生的地點 pabukhkobs8aug07.jpg


        Wind picking up, thunder rumbling, on Cheung Chau just now

        even so, over at Weather Underground, the weather experts figuring Pabuk small and maybe set to weaken, as chased by larger storm, Wutip.

        As I write, more rumbles w thunderstorm over Lantau, and rain starting.


        Darkness and rain just hitting Wanchai (in the last 5 minutes). I was out in pleasant bright weather and felt the first blobs of rain. Now from indoors it’s night and chucking it down.


        Heavy rain w thunder, lots of lightning, as an outer rain band arrived before 7pm (turned off my computer, lest get lightning spike hit electricity etc)

        Here, from HK Obs site, showing the lightning recorded.

        Pabuk now slower; may be late aft tomorrow before it’s closest to HK (as severe trop storm?) pabuklightning.jpg


        Seems no forecast really got Pabuk right; now perhaps just tropical storm/trop depression, moving towards west Guangdong.
        Roughly following it is trop storm/depression Wutip – maybe to cross Taiwan strait, then move around northwest over mainland China.
        So, doesn’t seem we’re set for dramatic weather, but rainy and rather blustery days ahead.


        Pabuk didn’t simply fade over land; instead, stayed over sea, halted, and now trundling back roughly towards us, maybe less than 100km away.
        No 1 signal back up.

        Radar animation here (live) – looks like intense rain at/near centre, which edges towards south of HK:


        長洲刮著強風——我相信接近大風(香港觀測記錄為 75 公里/小時)。

        雷達圖像顯示帕布克和雨帶離我們非常近; HK Obs 現在預測它將經過 HK(儘管它目前僅被評級為熱帶低氣壓)。


        Had to take a ferry to town – from Cheung Chau – this aft; then found myself stranded on HK Island as ferries halted during Number 8.

        On HK Island, maybe seemed the No 8 was much ado about nothing, but as I walked to 2.15 ferry, real strong wind w rain; and an “exciting” ferry ride, with large waves, ferry rolling around – even tho took route well to north of normal, passing near Peng Chau.

        Plan to post a few photos and video clips. But first, here’s a photo as left Cheung Chau harbour after 2.30 (after ferry struggled to even leave the pier – was first blown against it). Gives a little idea of wind and rain at the time.


        – 補充說帕布克最終可能會消散;過去一、兩個小時長洲的風力明顯減弱。 cc_harbour_pabuk10aug07small-6bcccab04850f3d60f60427f6b5e0327.jpg

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