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Updates and images on Super Typhoon Megi, which has crossed Luzon from east to west, killing at least 11 people, and is now headed towards South China, with forecast tracks suggesting it could come close to Hong Kong – landfall maybe east Guangdong.
Before landfall over Luzon, it packed extremely powerful winds, reaching 230 km/hr over 10-minute average: making it one of three strongest tropical cyclones ever recorded.
In Philippines, known as Typhoon Juan. Passage over Luzon weaken the storm somewhat, but it re-entered the South China Sea with typhoon strength. Movement uncertain, but it may slow down, re-intensify, and turn poleward – possibly coming fairly close to Hong Kong.
Here's video from the Philippines, by James Reynolds aka typhoonhunter: taken during storm as eye passed close by, and in aftermath of eye passing over:
[視頻：http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R9tckfJrTnI%5D
Currently, it seems Hong Kong will at least be affected by strong winds and rain from Megi.
[post edited on 21 October]
Super Typhoon Megi now battering Luzon; arrived with air pressure of 885mb, making it one of the strongest typhoons/hurricanes recorded making landfall (Wikipedia: Typhoon Megi).
Forecast to weaken a bit, hit S China Sea, then turn, and possibly close to HK (tho not so mighty).
So will it hit Hongkong?
Still can't say for sure if a direct hit is likely, but it's possible.
ECMWF computer models now seem an outlier in forecasting westerly track, with landfall close to Hainan (even though preferred by Joint Typhoon Warning Center as ECMWF has performed best w Megi so far). Some forecasts are for landfall east of HK.
HK Observatory forecast tracks since late yesterday have been pointing pretty much at HK. With Typhoon Lionrock in early days, I'd thought they were out of synch with developments, yet the Observatory forecast proved good I thought.
Here's actual and forecast track from Joint Typhoon Warning Center, which is based on assessment of several model forecasts. At landfall, winds 90 knots, or 166km/hr – well above the 118 km/hr needed to classify a tropical storm as a typhoon; winds rather stronger, at 100 knots, shortly before landfall.
Latest from ECMWF; no longer has Megi making landfall towards Hainan. Instead, hitting Hong Kong. Agrees with some other forecasts.
There's plenty of potential for the storm to veer to east or west of Hong Kong, but seems HK will feel at least strong impact of Severe Typhoon Megi (as it's known by HK Observatory).
See also latest from Joint Typhoon Warning Center: Can't have more direct hit than this! – though of course, tropical storms are quirky beasts, and even with increasingly sophisticated forecasting models they can move in unexpected ways.
I've noticed colourful, purple tinted clouds at dusk before a typhoon or two. This evening, there was also intense colour at dusk; shot here of Cheung Chau harbour.
so, what is the impact to hong kong going to be and when? i’m scheduled to fly out on friday morning from hong kong…
No one knows for sure what the impact will be.
But even with worst-case, direct hit scenario, looks like conditions won't be too bad on Friday morning, so I'd expect flights to still be normal or pretty much so. More impact later Friday, and especially Saturday 23 October.
梅吉仍在向北行駛；外圍雨帶在香港天文台雷達上清晰可見（280公里以內）。然而，香港並沒有發出暴風雨信號。對此的一些投訴 地下天氣論壇;即使是建議，因為發出信號也會讓大商人感到不安。
香港觀察'； T1 自己的信息：
“這是一個待命信號，顯示有熱帶氣旋集中在距離香港約800公里範圍內，可能影響本港。”
不遵循這一點是荒謬的——過去曾多次發出“待機”信號，但隨後發生的情況並不多，這很公平。沒有覺得天文台發出信號丟面子，也沒有突然停業什麼的。
現在，預計強颱風至少會帶來強風和降雨，這意味著它肯定會影響香港。
在風暴實際影響香港時發出T1，違背了“待命”信號的本意。
長洲這里風清了（看實時風力記錄好像不是這樣，但樹木吹得更多，風呼嘯而過，海面有些洶湧）：季風和颱風的結合？
就拖延而言，我想知道風暴潮情景是否真的可能或正在開始：像吐露港這樣的地區的人們會及時獲得信息嗎？另外：
華南早報 今天有關於海南等中國南部地區為颱風做準備的報導。一些疏散工作正在進行中。
我知道我們留在香港，但似乎很奇怪'沒有提到任何當地的準備工作。
最新的 256 公里半徑雷達圖像在這裡：
這裡是中國國家氣象中心下午 2 點的預報軌跡：
Hi, i was just wondering if now you can tell if typhoon Megi will hit Hong Kong. If yes, will it be a typhoon 8 and when?
謝謝
Georges
Hi Georges:
Still can't say for sure: only hindsight really works with most weather forecasts, including typhoons!
Looking at some forecast tracks, as well as Weather Underground discussion, seems "smart money" is on landfall to east of Hong Kong, so the eye – with the most intense winds – looks likely to miss us. But still, small deviation from forecasts could lead to hit.
Seems likely to be closest late Friday and during Saturday.
Bit of surf along coast of Cheung Chau this evening, as winds began picking up. Waves partly from offshore swell radiating from Megi.
When will megi hit hk?
IF Megi hits, looks likeliest to be during Saturday 23 October, perhaps late in the day.
HK Observatory track (issued 10pm – half an hour ago) has it moving north, and later curling northwest, to come near HK. National Meteorological Center (8pm) is much the same, and NMC has been consistent in forecast.
ECMWF forecast model not so fabulous with this storm; not so many posts ago, had the storm bound towards Hainan; has moved landfall eastwards, inc direct hit on HK, and now forecasting east of HK. UK Met Office forecast recently had the storm moving north, then suddenly turning west to pass HK: a sign that some change in steering is possible that might swing Megi towards us.
So let's see.
Worth remembering this hit Luzon as one of strongest tropical cyclones on record. Even somewhat weaker, Megi remains mighty.
Hong Kong Observatory may issue Number 3 soon – which is contrary to earlier announcement that they did not anticipate Number 3 tonight. Suggests Megi is moving more towards HK than they had forecast.
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