Hi Georges:
Still can't say for sure: only hindsight really works with most weather forecasts, including typhoons!
Looking at some forecast tracks, as well as Weather Underground discussion, seems "smart money" is on landfall to east of Hong Kong, so the eye – with the most intense winds – looks likely to miss us. But still, small deviation from forecasts could lead to hit.
Seems likely to be closest late Friday and during Saturday.
Bit of surf along coast of Cheung Chau this evening, as winds began picking up. Waves partly from offshore swell radiating from Megi.
