Reply To: Typhoon for early November???


Cimaron has continued approaching Hong Kong – following Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecast. JTWC now forecasting it will encounter increasing shear as it nears the coast; instead of making landfall just west of Hong Kong, it will weaken and turn west before reaching the coast (early afternoon tomorrow). Looks set to come close enough to make it real blustery here, surely with plenty of rain (hooray! – clean up some pollution). HK Obs forecast is rather similar, but has Cimaron turning earlier than JTWC. Over at MIT Storms page, there’s a variety of forecast tracks – three even show it making sudden leap southwards, towards either south or south-southwest.

Just noticed the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts is forecasting Cimaron will linger in S China Sea, albeit dwindling; only making landfall in n Vietnam around 9 November. That’s a long time for a storm to hang around; but, also a long time in the world of weather forecasting.