Well, ECMWF not so hot w the two storms: the one that formed in Hainan area didn’t become powerful; and now Pabuk (severe trop storm [HK Obs] or typhoon [Joint Typhoon Warning Center]) heading pretty much our way rather than looking set to head north after passing Taiwan.
HK Obs says: “Severe Tropical Storm Pabuk will move west in the next couple of days across the Taiwan Strait in the general direction of Guangdong. “
While ECMWF still has it set to move north, as odd looking system, HK Obs agrees with Joint Typhoon Warning Center that to keep moving west, and hit coast just to east of us.
JTWC forecast here. 