Reply To: Typhoon Mangkhut heads towards Hong Kong


From HK Observatory, around noon today:

‘The “Tropical Cyclone Track Probability Forecast” webpage provides the probability that a tropical cyclone (TC) will pass over a given location in the coming 9 days. …

The TPFM is automatically generated by computer using data from Ensemble Prediction Systems (EPS) of weather models without manual adjustment. The probability at each map location represents the chance of a tropical cyclone crossing within 120 kilometres of that location in the coming 9 days. Such chances are represented by colours on the TPFM: reddish for higher chance, yellow for medium chance (around 50%) and bluish for lower chance.’