Typhoon Nesat to Hong Kong?

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  • #7246

    Update: Typhoon Nesat indeed impacted Hong Kong, though not a direct hit. Passed to southwest of Hong Kong, causing gale force and stronger winds over much of HK, so Number 8 signal issued.Forecasts for a new tropical depression suggest it will soon become Typhoon Nesat, and it may pass very close to Hong Kong in a few days, perhaps over 29-30 September.

    Though it's currently well east of the Philippines [edit: since I posted this, been assigned the name Nesat] – here is a forecast track from ECMWF, for evening of 29 September:

    nesat forecast

    – you can check ECMWF forecasts via: http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500

    #8628

    Still early days yet, but does look as if Nesat will affect Hong Kong, with some chance it will be very close.

    ECMWF now forecasts landing around Hainan; but other tracks are to east of this, as on this graphic with six forecast tracks from an MIT page at: http://wind.mit.edu/~emanuel/storm.html

    nesat tracks

    #8629

    Forecast tracks have shifted towards Hainan, but now some swing back north again, to west Guangdong or even Hong Kong.

    This is from GFS, a model with some consistency so far in the track.

    nesat track

    Of interest, too, I think: HK Observatory forecasts force 7 winds late on Thursday and early on Saturday, so tho forecasts 6-7 for Friday, indicates some expectation of winds consistently force 7 or above on Friday, coupled with frequent squally showers. This fits close approach of strong storm.

    Still, must see just what happens…

    #8630
    Anonymous
    #8631

    Yes, looks as if track will take Nesat south of us, as it heads towards Hainan/west Guangdong.

    #8633

    Typhoon Nesat indeed passing towards west Guangdong; currently ca 360km south-southwest of Hong Kong.

    Has vey wide radius of strong winds; gales blowing over much of Hong Kong, leading to Number 8 signal being issued.

    Here's a shot from Cheung Chau last night; I'm about to take more shots, and some video. Comments including info on the storm are of course welcome.

    typhoon nesat cheung chau

    #8634

    Here's a shot from Cheung Chau this morning:

    tung wan during nesat

    #8635

    Here's a video I shot over past couple of days

    [video:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ytVnfuVyko8%5D

    #8639
    Anonymous

    May get a litle wet Sunday, Monday in HK

    Will it strenghten i wonder?

    http://www.hko.gov.hk/wxinfo/currwx/tc_pos.htm

    #8641

    Yes, this storm is currently heading our way; but I've seen forecasts for it to continue northwest, then curve westwards towards southern Hainan or directly to Vietnam.

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