Typhoon Nesat to Hong Kong?

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    Update: Typhoon Nesat indeed impacted Hong Kong, though not a direct hit. Passed to southwest of Hong Kong, causing gale force and stronger winds over much of HK, so Number 8 signal issued.Forecasts for a new tropical depression suggest it will soon become Typhoon Nesat, and it may pass very close to Hong Kong in a few days, perhaps over 29-30 September.

    Though it's currently well east of the Philippines [edit: since I posted this, been assigned the name Nesat] – here is a forecast track from ECMWF, for evening of 29 September:

    nesat forecast

    – you can check ECMWF forecasts via: http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500


    Still early days yet, but does look as if Nesat will affect Hong Kong, with some chance it will be very close.

    ECMWF now forecasts landing around Hainan; but other tracks are to east of this, as on this graphic with six forecast tracks from an MIT page at: http://wind.mit.edu/~emanuel/storm.html

    nesat tracks


    Forecast tracks have shifted towards Hainan, but now some swing back north again, to west Guangdong or even Hong Kong.

    This is from GFS, a model with some consistency so far in the track.

    nesat track

    Of interest, too, I think: HK Observatory forecasts force 7 winds late on Thursday and early on Saturday, so tho forecasts 6-7 for Friday, indicates some expectation of winds consistently force 7 or above on Friday, coupled with frequent squally showers. This fits close approach of strong storm.

    Still, must see just what happens…


      Yes, looks as if track will take Nesat south of us, as it heads towards Hainan/west Guangdong.


      Typhoon Nesat indeed passing towards west Guangdong; currently ca 360km south-southwest of Hong Kong.

      Has vey wide radius of strong winds; gales blowing over much of Hong Kong, leading to Number 8 signal being issued.

      Here's a shot from Cheung Chau last night; I'm about to take more shots, and some video. Comments including info on the storm are of course welcome.

      typhoon nesat cheung chau


      Here's a shot from Cheung Chau this morning:

      tung wan during nesat


      Here's a video I shot over past couple of days



        May get a litle wet Sunday, Monday in HK

        Will it strenghten i wonder?



        Yes, this storm is currently heading our way; but I've seen forecasts for it to continue northwest, then curve westwards towards southern Hainan or directly to Vietnam.

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