Typhoon Nesat to Hong Kong?

[DocMartin Williams]

Update: Typhoon Nesat indeed impacted Hong Kong, though not a direct hit. Passed to southwest of Hong Kong, causing gale force and stronger winds over much of HK, so Number 8 signal issued.Forecasts for a new tropical depression suggest it will soon become Typhoon Nesat, and it may pass very close to Hong Kong in a few days, perhaps over 29-30 September.

Though it's currently well east of the Philippines [edit: since I posted this, been assigned the name Nesat] – here is a forecast track from ECMWF, for evening of 29 September:

– you can check ECMWF forecasts via: http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500

[DocMartin Williams]

Still early days yet, but does look as if Nesat will affect Hong Kong, with some chance it will be very close.

ECMWF now forecasts landing around Hainan; but other tracks are to east of this, as on this graphic with six forecast tracks from an MIT page at: http://wind.mit.edu/~emanuel/storm.html

[DocMartin Williams]

Forecast tracks have shifted towards Hainan, but now some swing back north again, to west Guangdong or even Hong Kong.

This is from GFS, a model with some consistency so far in the track.

Of interest, too, I think: HK Observatory forecasts force 7 winds late on Thursday and early on Saturday, so tho forecasts 6-7 for Friday, indicates some expectation of winds consistently force 7 or above on Friday, coupled with frequent squally showers. This fits close approach of strong storm.

Still, must see just what happens…

[Anonymous]

South of HK

http://www.hko.gov.hk/wxinfo/currwx/tc_pos.htm

[DocMartin Williams]

Yes, looks as if track will take Nesat south of us, as it heads towards Hainan/west Guangdong.

[DocMartin Williams]

Typhoon Nesat indeed passing towards west Guangdong; currently ca 360km south-southwest of Hong Kong.

Has vey wide radius of strong winds; gales blowing over much of Hong Kong, leading to Number 8 signal being issued.

Here's a shot from Cheung Chau last night; I'm about to take more shots, and some video. Comments including info on the storm are of course welcome.

[DocMartin Williams]

Here's a shot from Cheung Chau this morning:

[DocMartin Williams]

Here's a video I shot over past couple of days

[video:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ytVnfuVyko8%5D

[Anonymous]

May get a litle wet Sunday, Monday in HK

Will it strenghten i wonder?

http://www.hko.gov.hk/wxinfo/currwx/tc_pos.htm

[DocMartin Williams]

Yes, this storm is currently heading our way; but I've seen forecasts for it to continue northwest, then curve westwards towards southern Hainan or directly to Vietnam.

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