Typhoon to mark start of October 2006?

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    The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) has "interesting" forecast chart for Saturday 30 September – shows tropical storm (typhoon?) that formed east of Philippines, moving (north)west across South China Sea – roughly a course as followed by some major typhoons that have impacted Hong Kong. Causing some excitement over at Weather Underground forums already – seen as a "new hope"(! – yes, seems the weather fans are into hurricane force winds, torrential rain, storm surges…). ecmwf_30_sept_06.gif

    Post edited by: Martin, at: 2006/09/23 21:57


    ECMWF now has storm moving roughly westwards – on path that could take it south of Hong Kong, towards Hainan/Vietnam. Looks like a major storm is forecast – this is forecast for 2 October; even at distance, could make for windy start to October – while if storm like this comes close…


    Oh great. The first No 8 of the season to arrive on the first bank holiday since spring.


    Its just what we need to blow the firework smoke out of Victoria Harbour. Enjoy it while it lasts, the wind that is.. Hope 360 bodes well.
    Mother Nature is great at wreaking vengance upon white elephants and that includes you Disney.. Count your earnings after Golden Week.


    The system’s now a tropical depression, and has a name: Xangsane (and rather quickly upgraded by HK Obs to tropical storm)

    Latest from ECMWF has it passing well south of Hong Kong, and looking set to slam Vietnam by around 3 Oct (their free forecasts only available, just now, to 2 Oct – evening for us).
    – so may not ruin the weekend/holiday, but early days yet
    (and a forecast track I saw late yesterday, via weather underground, had it coming v close, landing not far west of Macau)

    HK Observatory looks to be anticipating some impacts: 7-day forecast has “cloudy with scattered showers” for Sunday and Monday, with force 5 easterly or northeasterly winds.
    – bulletin updated at 11.32am now has winds to force 6 offshore and on high ground (such as a certain cable car route…) for Sunday and Monday.

    Post edited by: Martin, at: 2006/09/26 11:54


    Another forecast from ECMWF now out; has Xangsane apporaching Vietnam on 3 Oct. And, that day, another system forming to east of Philippines (in a location where could enter S China Sea, could head north towards Japan). So, some trop storm action in west Pacific, after a lull.


    MIT’s Tropical Cyclone Track and Intensity Forecasts and Guidance has forecasts from several places, which all agree Xangsane heading for Vietnam – so not likely to have much impact here. Maybe not becoming a major storm, as it appeared ECMWF once forecast.
    – ECMWF guys now have new crystal ball, it appears, as now forecasting up to 10 days in advance. And the system east of Philippines, they reckon, could become big, but turning north over Pacific.


    After hitting Luzon, including Manila – and causing at least 16 deaths, Xangsane now over the South China Sea, and set to intensify a little, head west – on towards Vietnam, and perhaps even crossing north Thailand as a tropical storm, judging by MIT’s page on tropical storms. News items include, from BBC:

    Philippine typhoon toll increases At least 16 people are now known to have died in the latest typhoon to hit the Philippines. – including a quote: It was "one of the worst devastations that Manila has experienced," the city’s Mayor, Lito Atienza, told local radio on Friday. Here in Hong Kong, Observatory predicting that combined effects of Xangsane and northeast monsoon will result in windy weekend – winds could reach force 7 in some places tomorrow (Saturday).

    Only rain patches though, so windsurfers and kitesurfers could have fun, while those landlubbers amongst us could have fun watching surf pound rocky coasts such as Shek O headland. – a day later, more news from Philippines, inc:

    The death toll from a powerful typhoon that cut across the northern Philippines rose Friday to at least 62, with dozens of people missing in floods and landslides, officials said.

    North Thailand now preparing, especially for floods:

    Post edited by: Martin, at: 2006/09/30 11:09

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