- This topic has 9 replies, 2 voices, and was last updated 13 years, 3 months ago by Anonymous.
- 20 August 2008 at 6:27 am #7142
Typhoon Nuri is heading west from the Pacific; currently near the northern tip of Luzon. [Edit, 2pm Thurs 21 Aug: it’s moved closer, forecast tracks now put it close to Hong Kong tomorrow, with direct hit possible – if so, would mean Nuri follows much the same track as some of the main typhoons that have hit Hong Kong.]
Edited: Here’s video I shot today; not so great for winds – which were considerably stronger afterdark, reaching hurricane force at Waglan Island and Ngong Ping, and storm force )for over three hours) on Cheung Chau. But, shows eye well I think; albeit not a cloudless eye.
Forecast intensity by Joint Typhoon Warning Center has sustained winds to reach 105 knots – which would make it around Category 3 on hurricane (Saffir-Simpson) scale.
[Now almost 6pm on 21 Aug: intensity and forecast intensity far lower; forecast to have around 70 knot sustained winds – so more within Category One]
Indicating differences in forecasts, from JTWC:Quote:THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL TRACKERS CONTINUE TO
DIVERGE, WITH NOGAPS IN PARTICULAR PREDICTING AN IMMEDIATE RECURVATURE.
A MAJORITY OF THE OTHER NUMERICAL MODELS SHOW A TRACK FARTHER TO THE
WEST AND ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72. THESE MODELS DEPICT
LANDFALL WELL TO THE EAST OF HONG KONG. THE ECMWF AND JGSM MODELS
PRESENT THE FARTHEST WESTWARD TRACK SOLUTIONS, SHOWING A CONTINUOUS
WESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AND EVENTUAL LANDFALL AROUND TAU 48
JUST TO THE EAST OF HONG KONG. GIVEN THE CURRENT UPPER AIR ANALYSIS,
THE PERSISTENT TREND OF CONTINUOUS RIDGING TO THE NORTH OF THE
TYPHOON, AND THE OBSERVED EVOLUTION OF THE MID-LATITUDE FLOW PATTERN,
THIS FORECAST IS CLOSEST TO THE ECMWF AND JGSM SCENARIO.
Right now here in Hong Kong, the weather is very hot, sunny; barely breath of wind. Air clear yesterday; but now tinged by smog – typical as tropical storm lies to east/southeast of us.21 August 2008 at 2:24 am #8181
Late yesterday, Nuri turned northwards, so looked set to land quite well away from HK; but this morning, been heading westwards.
Here’s track, with forecast track in white, from cimms (Joint Typhoon Warning Center track I believe)21 August 2008 at 3:16 am #8182
A slightly later forecast; here with direct hit on Hong Kong21 August 2008 at 8:33 am #8183
Now, looks like Nuri to hit or be extremely close to Hong Kong tomorrow; or might even move rather further west while to south of us.
This also from cimms: shows track, and the dense cloud: won’t be long before rain starts affecting us I think.21 August 2008 at 12:48 pm #8184
Nuri still heading for Hong Kong, tho not a powerful typhoon.
Shot here of dusk over Cheung Chau this evening; it was calm then, but just seen Number Three signal in effect as I post this – so winds likely to pick up soon.22 August 2008 at 1:14 am #8185
Joint Typhoon Warning Center reports that Nuri has weakened a little – downgraded it to tropical storm; also forecasts it will weaken furhter before hitting land.
Bu, it’s still strong enough that satellite images show an eye (rather diffuse), HK observatory still rates it a typhoon, and winds at Waglan Island have risen to over 80 km/hr (118 km/hr is hurricane force, if sustained [over 1 min average for US hurricanes, over 10 mins for HK and more usual w typhoons).
Seems it’s on track towards just west of HK – eye may pass over Lantau/Pearl River.
Here’s part of latest radar image: shows it’s mostly dry ahead of storm; can see rain free centre; and LOTS of rain (maybe with worse winds) in southern part of the storm.22 August 2008 at 5:05 am #8186
Here’s a shot from this morning; wasn’t yet raining, but powerful winds blowing over east coast of Cheung Chau.
[as I write this, HK Obs radar indicates the centre of Nuri is almost at Hong Kong]
Here’s another shot from this morning, southern Cheung Chau (sheltered from most of the wind, at the time, but still waves rolling in)22 August 2008 at 1:57 pm #8187
Winds here on Cheung Chau reached around storm force by mid aft, but abated late aft – as Nuri’s eye passed over Hong Kong. Went out for a walk in the eye, and it was indeed calm (tho not an eye with clear sky!)
Here’s Kwun Yam Wan (as in comment above, which was this morning) durring the eye: calm sea, but good swell forming waves on beach.
View here from Cheung Chau, looking towards Hong Kong Island, as eye of Nuri passing over (perhaps around this time, HK Observatory downgraded it to severe tropical storm – even so, also around this time, winds had resurged at Wagland Island, and exceeded 130km/hr for 10-min average – well over hurricane force).
Also during the eye – structural damage by main beach at Cheung Chau; here maybe a rooftop structure had crashed down.
There were several trees down, inc this one, by public pier along Cheung Chau Praya.5 March 2009 at 3:57 pm #8325Anonymous
Next time, include more info, less pics!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
P.S.-some people actually care about the destruction, not the photos of what was!!!6 June 2009 at 11:39 am #8380Anonymous
A picture says a thousand words.
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